Flávio Bolsonaro's AI Videos and Film Scandal Shadow Brazil

Flávio Bolsonaro is deploying AI-generated videos of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, to revitalize the family's political prospects. The son and presidential candidate has publicly stated he would pardon his father if elected. This campaign unfolds as Jair Bolsonaro is legally barred from addressing the public and from running for office again. The main presidential candidates are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the incumbent, and Flávio Bolsonaro, who presents himself as a 'vaccinated' version of his father.

Flávio Bolsonaro has a history of homophobic statements and defends Brazil’s former military dictatorship, which killed and tortured political rivals. He has aligned with right-wing leaders including Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentina's Javier Milei. His campaign faces intense scrutiny over a 61 million reais, or $12 million, financing arrangement for a movie titled Dark Horse. This financing came from a disgraced banker and is at the center of a corruption scandal.

The film at the center of controversy

The English-language movie Dark Horse, starring Jim Caviezel, portrays Jair Bolsonaro as a victim of a conspiracy. Commentator John Oliver said the suspiciously expensive film was clearly designed to reset Jair Bolsonaro’s image among Brazilians and boost Flávio’s campaign. The film's distributor decided to postpone its release until after the election. This means Flávio Bolsonaro will not get any of the propaganda benefits of Dark Horse but still has to deal with the scandal surrounding its financing.

Legal and political barriers to the Bolsonaro return

Jair Bolsonaro's direct influence is severely limited. After losing the 2022 election, he fled to Florida. Subsequent investigations into an alleged military coup attempt led to a sentence of 27 years and three months in prison. He was released after four months to serve the remainder under humanitarian house arrest due to failing health. Former U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the judicial proceedings as a witch-hunt and threatened to impose 50% tariffs against Brazil in response. Incumbent Lula has seen a boost in popularity when denouncing such foreign tariff threats as infringements on Brazilian sovereignty.

Lula's re-election bid and voter sentiment

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is running for re-election at age 80. He has used social media workout videos to address public concerns about his age. Brazil's unemployment rate has reached its lowest point since 2012. Despite this, voter concerns about overall affordability persist. Oliver compared Lula’s political standing to that of U.S. President Joe Biden. The problem for Lula, Oliver noted, is that many voters see him as an establishment candidate. Oliver described the political situation as a choice between Lula and a Bolsonaro candidate, noting many voters are unenthusiastic about the options.

Context of a deeply polarized electorate

Brazil's upcoming election involves 160 million citizens for whom voting is mandatory. They will choose the president, state governors, two-thirds of the senate, and every member of the lower house. This follows the historically close 2022 presidential election, which Lula won over Jair Bolsonaro by just two percentage points. That margin was the smallest since the fall of the military dictatorship in 1985. Months after that vote, violent rioters claiming Bolsonaro did not lose clashed with police and vandalized government buildings. The election outcome will determine the executive leadership and legislative composition for Brazil's upcoming term.