U.S. seeks global support for Iran pressure
A former U.S. official says China's cooperation is crucial for any successful economic pressure campaign against Iran, as it buys over 90% of Iran's oil.
The Trump administration is seeking support from G20 countries for an economic pressure campaign against Iran. According to former Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, China's participation is the decisive factor, as it purchases over 90 percent of Iran's oil.
Finer, a senior fellow at Yale Law School, made the comments in an interview with NPR's Leila Fadel. He stated that without China curtailing its economic activity with Iran, the U.S. campaign would struggle. The issue arises ahead of a planned visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month.
The Central Role of China
Oil is the largest source of revenue for Iran's government. Finer argued that China's support, or at least its acquiescence to U.S. sanctions, is not just important but is really the entire game. A major question is whether the U.S. administration is prepared to apply enough pressure on China to secure its cooperation, given a crowded agenda that includes tech competition and Taiwan.
The administration has described its approach with threats to sanction countries that continue business with Iran. This raises risks for U.S.-China trade relations. Finer noted that China sees itself as a peer to the United States and does not consider itself vulnerable to American pressure. He pointed to a previous instance where U.S. economic pressure led China to withhold rare earth minerals, causing the Trump administration to back down.
Limited Support from Other Nations
Finer contrasted the current effort with the diplomatic push that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. Then, a global coalition including China, Russia, and European allies rallied behind U.S. efforts and voted for UN sanctions. In this instance, he said there is zero chance those countries will be broadly supportive.
European nations are expected to be on board, but Finer noted they are not the primary economic partners with Iran. Their support, while an important part of an overall approach, is not going to move the needle without China's involvement.
Efficacy of Economic Pressure
The focus on economic warfare follows a military campaign that Finer suggested has not achieved its aims. The war has not been swift, there are no signs of regime change, and the Iranian government appears more entrenched. Iranian officials have refused to submit to U.S. demands, causing negotiations to repeatedly fall apart.
Finer acknowledged Iran is under significant economic strain, with massive consumer price inflation and dramatically scaled-back growth due to the war. However, he questioned whether this pressure would alter Iran's fundamental calculus. He said nothing that he has seen suggests that Iran is going to actually acquiesce to some of the very severe demands that the Trump administration is making. He added that Iran's leaders appear willing to endure the pain, making the situation particularly difficult for the U.S.
If advising the president, Finer said the United States should seek the best available deal. He recommended returning to negotiations with Iran, leveraging whatever added pressure exists, and ending a war that they never should've gotten into in the first place. He concluded that the conflict is costing the U.S. dramatically, including in terms of military readiness elsewhere in the world.
