Europe's far-right gains boost Kremlin's
Recent electoral successes by Germany's AfD and the potential rise of France's Marine Le Pen are creating political openings for Russia within the European
Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic position is strengthening as Europe's far-right parties gain political ground. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a significant victory in Saxony-Anhalt's regional election, bringing a Russia-friendly party closer to governing a core EU state.
AfD's national polling now places it six to seven percentage points ahead of the governing Christian Democratic Union. The party's platform focuses on clamping down on immigration, curtailing LGBTQ rights, and rolling back renewable energy transitions. Its stronghold is in former East Germany, where it already leads in Thuringia. If current trends hold, AfD could form the largest caucus in the next Bundestag after the 2029 federal election, testing the mainstream parties' declared 'firewall' meant to keep it from power.
Potential alliances on the left
A potential coalition glue could be shared pro-Russia stances. AfD is courting support from the left, specifically the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a splinter from the Die Linke party. Both groups argue for cutting military aid to Ukraine, engaging in peace negotiations with Russia, and lifting EU sanctions. Their alignment on migration and gender issues also resonates with Putin's criticism of so-called 'woke' Europe. An AfD-BSW coalition in Berlin would likely pursue policies similar to Viktor Orban's Hungary, but with far greater consequence due to Germany's key role in European politics and security.
The higher stakes in France
While Germany's situation evolves, a more immediate concern is France. President Emmanuel Macron is term-limited, and current polls suggest Marine Le Pen's National Rally could win the 2027 presidential election. A nationalist, Eurosceptic leader in the Elysee would severely complicate a unified European foreign policy, especially regarding Russia. Although Le Pen's party favors some military aid for Ukraine-unlike AfD-it calls for negotiations and criticizes EU efforts to defeat Russia as misguided. Under her leadership, EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, Ukraine, or Moldova would likely be halted.
The limits of Russian influence
It is tempting to blame the rise of these parties solely on Moscow's machinations. However, while populists and nativists share views aligned with the Kremlin, their voter appeal stems from exploiting genuine economic grievances and cultural anxieties. Russia's influence campaigns aim to amplify social cleavages and resentment to disrupt the established order. The article states, "the choice, as well as the responsibility it entails, lies squarely with the voters in a given democracy."
The possibility of political moderation
History shows that hardliners' policies can evolve once in office. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, once skeptical, became a staunch backer of Ukraine and Western unity after her Brothers of Italy won in 2022. Similarly, France's National Rally has moved toward the centre on EU integration and Russia policy under Le Pen and deputy Jordan Bardella. Thus far, AfD remains an exception by sticking to its extreme positions, a strategy that currently works for it. However, the article suggests that to attract disgruntled CDU voters outside its eastern base and dismantle the political firewall, AfD may eventually have to moderate its stance.
The populist revolt across Europe may not lead to radical change precisely as Russia desires. Yet, it will create significant internal disruption within the EU, hindering its intermittent efforts to assume a greater geopolitical role. The article concludes by noting Saxony-Anhalt's historical link to Catherine the Great's family, a detail Putin, an amateur historian, might appreciate, seeing his ideological allies governing there as a symbolic point for Moscow.
