Brazil Election: Lula Leads Bolsonaro in Tight Poll Runoff
President Lula leads challenger Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 45% in a new Datafolha poll, with the race within the margin of error ahead of Sunday's vote.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 45% in a simulated runoff, according to a Datafolha poll conducted September 22-23, 2024. The two-point gap is within the poll's margin of error, indicating a statistical tie in Brazil's deeply polarized presidential race. The survey of 2,002 people shows a first-round scenario where Lula holds 40% support and Bolsonaro 36%, with other candidates trailing far behind.
| Candidate | First-Round Support | Runoff Simulation (vs. Bolsonaro) |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 40% | 47% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 36% | 45% |
| Augusto Cury | 5% | - |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 4% | - |
| Renan Santos | 3% | - |
If no candidate secures over 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders will proceed to a runoff. The poll reflects a slight tightening from the prior week, when Lula led 46% to 44% in a runoff simulation.
Election day arrives amid deep divisions
Sunday's election in Brazil is taking place as voters express frustration with both major candidates and fear democratic backsliding. For many, the choice is less an endorsement of their preferred candidate and more a vote against the one they detest more. Most voters disapprove of both President Lula and his main challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro family dynamics and legal challenges
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, campaigns as a tempered, less crass version of his father. Analysts describe him as no less extreme. His father is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to annihilate democracy after losing the 2022 election. The younger Bolsonaro wants to free his father and those who rioted in his support in 2023.
He faces allegations tied to a financial scandal. He was caught on tape asking Daniel Vorcaro, the playboy owner of the failed Banco Master, for almost $27 million to make a film about his father. Flávio Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing. The Banco Master scandal has expanded into a corruption case involving Brazilian politics and the judiciary, with compromising messages revealed between Vorcaro and the supreme court judge who led the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro has also papered over a damaging public rift with his influential stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, who is key to the evangelical support he needs.
Broader implications for democracy and foreign influence
A Bolsonaro victory could embolden far-right agendas with significant regional consequences. The Bolsonaro family has spent years undermining trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system, and a narrow first-round victory for Lula would probably be contested. Flávio Bolsonaro has talked up privatization, cuts to public spending and taxes, and has pledged to pack the supreme court with anti-abortion conservative judges. Such judges would be critical to future election disputes. He has also vowed an aggressive anti-crime drive similar to those that have trampled human rights elsewhere.
Internationally, a win for Bolsonaro could reshape geopolitics. A victory would likely embolden President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in their 'Monroe doctrine' of aggressive intervention in the western hemisphere. US meddling in Brazilian elections has often backfired, however, such as through high tariffs that allowed Lula to run as a patriot defending against foreign interference. A Bolsonaro presidency would likely resemble a potential second Trump term, described as more ruthless and reckless. Environmental policy is also at stake, as Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency saw historic deforestation in the Amazon, a surge in illegal resource extraction, and invasions of Indigenous lands.
The race remains on a knife's edge. Flávio Bolsonaro has said he will abide by the election’s result. The final outcome hinges on whether any candidate can clear the 50% threshold on Sunday or if the nation will face a tense runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro.
