High Early Voting Marks US Midterm Elections

More than 43 million Americans have voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before the US midterm elections. Democrats currently lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points in the latest national congressional ballot average.

Early voting numbers have surged in several key states compared to the last midterm election. In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, a 50 percent increase from the 4.2 million at the same point in 2022. Georgia has also seen over 2.5 million ballots cast, surpassing its 2022 early voting total.

Polling and Expectations

While Democrats hold a lead in national polling, expectations for control of Congress are mixed. A recent survey found 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to retain control. Expectations for the Senate are much closer, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

Analyst Kyle Kondik stated that the Democratic lead in national polling suggests the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats, but the Senate flip is much more uncertain. Alaska’s Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups that will likely decide whether Republicans keep their majority.

Campaigning and Rallies

Campaigning intensified over the weekend with both parties urging supporters to the polls. President Donald Trump held back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. At a rally, he told the crowd, "You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down."

Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi, urging participation. In Kansas, a poll suggests the Democratic challenger is leading the Republican incumbent. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to confuse voters, a move the Department of Justice has taken legal action over.

State-Level Voting Trends

Early voting trends show significant variation and increases across states. Several states have seen turnout jump by more than 30 percent compared with the same period in 2022.

In Texas, which has the highest above-average turnout rate, the partisan breakdown of early ballots shows a Democratic advantage. Of the early ballots cast, 44 percent were from Democrats, 31.2 percent from Republicans, and 24.7 percent from voters with no party affiliation. The state has also seen a notable increase in votes cast by Hispanic and black communities, while voting among white people is on par with 2022 figures. Overall turnout may outpace both 2020 and 2018.

With early voting soon tapering off as states cut off the option, the final outcome of the elections will be determined in the coming days.