Bolsonaro family surges as Michelle wins Senate and Flávio faces Lula

Michelle Bolsonaro, the 44-year-old wife of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate on Sunday. It was her first run for public office. The victory cements her status as a central figure in Brazil's right-wing movement, after a July poll named her the most powerful woman in Brazilian politics, ranking her well ahead of First Lady Janja Lula da Silva, a supreme court justice, and many members of congress.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old far-right senator, won the first round of Brazil's presidential election. He will face 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff scheduled for 25 October. Flávio Bolsonaro said he was 'very happy' to have led Lula, who received 45% of the vote. His result exceeded expectations, winning more votes than his father did in the 2018 and 2022 presidential elections. Some analysts see the result as more of an anti-Lula vote than a strong preference for the senator. Lula warned the choice was between democracy and 'barbarism,' while Flávio Bolsonaro said he wanted to 'free the Brazilian people.'

Flávio Bolsonaro advances to presidential runoff after exceeding expectations

Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round performance has reshaped the political landscape. The son of the former president, he now heads into a direct contest with Lula, the two biggest names in Brazilian politics representing the right and left. The campaign has polarised Brazil, with sovereignty, crime, the economy, and corruption as top concerns. Lula, seeking a fourth term after previous wins in 2002, 2006, and 2022, is more popular in Brazil's poorer northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women. He beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2% of the vote in 2022.

Wider Bolsonaro clan gains ground across multiple political fronts

Beyond the presidency, the Bolsonaro family made significant gains. Renato Bolsonaro, the former president's 62-year-old younger brother, achieved a dramatic vote increase. After losing seven consecutive elections for lower-level offices, earning the nickname 'the brother who can't win,' he went from fewer than 10,000 votes in a mayoral race two years ago to 380,000 votes for congress. During the campaign, Renato Bolsonaro said, "Flávio is not Jair. He doesn't draw crowds."

Meanwhile, Eduardo Bolsonaro, 42, known as 'son 03,' abandoned his seat in congress and lives in self-imposed exile in the US. He has lobbied for more than a year for what Lula and many others see as Donald Trump's attempts to interfere in Brazil's elections.

Family political legacy extends through next generation amid legal constraints

The family's political network shows remarkable resilience despite the patriarch's legal troubles. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup after losing the 2022 election. Michelle Bolsonaro cared for her husband while he served a sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup. Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his eldest son Flávio to run in his place.

Carlos Bolsonaro, the 43-year-old second son regarded as the most radical of the siblings, was elected senator for the first time. His previous political career amounted to 25 years as a city councillor in Rio de Janeiro, a role he started at age 17. He ran his father's social media accounts and was indicted by federal police for leading a so-called hate cabinet that spread fake news and attacks on opponents. He once ran against his own mother, Rogéria Bolsonaro, for a city councillor seat. Rogéria, who divorced Jair Bolsonaro, ran last Sunday for a seat in the state legislature using the Bolsonaro surname but lost.

Jair Renan Valle Bolsonaro, the patriarch's 28-year-old fourth son, dropped his two middle names on the ballot to run as Jair Bolsonaro. He jumped from city councillor to federal congressman. Of Bolsonaro's five children, only his 15-year-old daughter has never held political office. The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva is scheduled for 25 October.