Russia, Ukraine, US Begin Critical Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi

The third round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States begins Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, marking the first such meeting since February and lasting two days. This meeting is the most significant development in war diplomacy this year, with US negotiators believing both sides show flexibility on a possible territorial compromise while core demands remain firmly opposed.

Key participants and leadership

Ukraine's delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Russia's chief negotiator is Vladimir Medinsky, a Putin aide who has led talks since March 2022, supported by Sergei Ryabkov and Yuri Zhigarlovsky. The US side is led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and European powers including France, Germany, and the European Commission will attend the talks, though Russia does not want them to take part in the formal negotiations. Ukrainian delegate Rustem Umerov stated they are ensuring Europe participates in the diplomatic process.

Core territorial demands

Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson and abandon its NATO bid, alongside accepting strict military limits and restrictions on language and church. Ukraine rejects ceding any territory and insists on an immediate ceasefire and a direct meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. Russia currently occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region. A senior Ukrainian official denied considering any concessions in the proposed deal.

Battlefield context and casualties

Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims battlefield successes are strengthening Ukraine's position ahead of the talks. He said: "Ukrainian forces are currently genuinely strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position." Russian battlefield losses have reached unprecedented levels in its modern history, with over 400,000 deaths reported. This data comes from 412,576 death certificates linked to the war, obtained by activist groups. Concurrently, Russia has intensified air strikes on Ukraine's power grid using ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, targeting four electrical substations in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia regions. Zelenskyy said the EU agreed to activate a special emergency mechanism to speed up funding for power grid repairs. In a separate attack, Russian forces hit a warehouse in Odesa containing food supplies for kindergartens and schools, killing three people. Ukraine has escalated drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and a plant near St. Petersburg producing solid rocket propellant for Iskander-M missiles.

Security guarantees and US leadership

Security guarantees for Ukraine, potentially modeled on NATO Article 5, will be a central topic. US negotiators in Abu Dhabi believe Zelenskyy and Putin may each cede a little on territory. The US says a broader European security deal is in the works, with former President Donald Trump calling it 'a big agreement' involving more than Ukraine. Trump expressed confidence, stating, "We’re having a very good conversation about that in Abu Dhabi." He added he sees a very strong inclination to end the war and that both sides are tired of fighting. Jared Kushner stated the talks will set the stage for direct Russia-European partner engagement on security arrangements. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomed the US proposal to put collective security on the agenda, a shift from previous demands for NATO to roll back deployments in Central and Eastern Europe. Under the proposed deal, Ukraine would receive an end to the war, security guarantees, and a roadmap to EU accession. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the process to end the war still has a ways to go.

The talks will conclude on Thursday with expectations for initial statements on security guarantees and territorial flexibility.