Trump Blames Ukraine, California for Fuel Price Surge

Former President Donald Trump has blamed Ukrainian strikes and refinery closures in Democratic-led states for soaring US fuel prices. Trump made the remarks on Monday, October 5, 2026, in a post on his Truth Social platform, deflecting blame from the ongoing conflict with Iran.

He stated that Ukrainian attacks are blowing up Russian refineries and that Democratic-led states like California are closing refineries. Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the main driver of high gas prices, citing record numbers of barrels coming out daily.

Actual supply constraints

Verified data shows a complex global supply picture. Daily exports through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged 97 percent since the war with Iran began, choking global supplies. However, flows have shown recent recovery, with the seven-day average reaching 14.2 million barrels per day on September 26, 2026, nearly 80% of prewar levels. Middle Eastern exports exceeded prewar levels on several days during the final week of September.

Despite this, tanker rates, insurance expenses and limited refining capacity remain major pressures on fuel prices. Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades in June. Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claimed on Sunday it has disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity.

In the United States, two California refineries have shut down over the past year, reducing the state's refining capacity by 17 percent. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has hit its lowest level since 1982. Russia has also extended a temporary ban on exports of diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil by direct producers until October 31.

Market and voter reaction

Public opinion polling indicates significant voter anger over economic conditions. An AP-NORC poll found 65 percent of Americans blame Trump's policies for higher prices, while 61 percent say the US economy is worse off than when Trump returned to office. Only 17% of U.S. adults approve of the Republican president's handling of the cost of living.

Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low. A majority, 65%, of U.S. adults now blame Trump’s policies for persistently high costs more than factors outside of his control.

What happens next

Rising energy costs have emerged as a decisive issue ahead of US midterm elections on November 3. Most current polls predict Democratic gains in both houses of Congress less than a month before voters head to the polls. The trajectory of refinery closures and global supply disruptions continues to shape the political and economic landscape.