Brazil's 2026 presidential election heads to Lula-Bolsonaro runoff
Brazil's presidential election is set for an October 25 runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.
Polls close at 17.00 BRT on October 4, with no candidate expected to win over 50% of valid votes. This triggers a mandatory runoff on October 25 between the two leading contenders, incumbent President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Opinion polls suggest no other candidate will come close to these two frontrunners, though there is no clear leader in surveys for the second round.
The candidates and their stakes
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old incumbent from the Workers' Party, is a veteran of the Brazilian left. He is seeking an unprecedented non-consecutive fourth term, having served three terms previously. Brazilian presidents are limited to two consecutive terms, so a 2026 victory would be his final run. During his first two terms, between 2003 and 2011, he was credited with overseeing a historic period of commodity-fuelled growth and poverty reduction. His political career faced a major hurdle in 2018 when he was jailed on corruption charges, but that conviction was quashed after 580 days behind bars.
His opponent is the son of his predecessor. Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost to Lula in the 2022 election and was later convicted for plotting a military coup to overturn that result. He is now serving a 27-year sentence. Jair Bolsonaro has endorsed his son Flávio's campaign and hopes to regain his freedom if Flávio wins.
Family and foreign alignments
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro. He is known to be an ally of US President Donald Trump. Lula has accused the Trump administration of using tariffs and other means to interfere with Brazilian affairs. Analysts expect a Bolsonaro presidency would strengthen ties with Washington.
Other candidates in the race include Ronaldo Caiado of the Centralist Socialist Party, the former governor of Goias; Romeu Zema of the NOVO party, the former governor of Minas Gerais; Renan Santos, a political activist and entrepreneur from the Missao party; and Augusto Curry, a psychiatrist and author from the Avante party.
Minas Gerais as the decider
All eyes are on the bellwether state of Minas Gerais. This mountainous mining and agricultural region is larger than France and home to 21 million people. Since democracy returned in the 1980s, no candidate has won the presidency without winning Minas Gerais. History suggests that whoever wins Minas, will win the election.
The state's swing nature is stark. In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro beat Lula's candidate there by more than 1.7 million votes. In 2022, Lula reclaimed it by fewer than 50,000 votes and went on to win the national race.
How results will unfold
The president in Brazil is directly elected. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, a second runoff election is held three weeks later, contested by the two highest-polling candidates. Sunday's results will offer the first real measure of support beyond polls.
Results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court will be reported state by state. They will be visualized with bigger circles indicating a greater lead. State-by-state results will be grouped by who won each state in the 2022 runoff, with the closest races listed at the top within each group. No votes have been counted yet. A new Datafolha poll was released this afternoon. The new leader will take power on 5 January 2027.
