Iceland votes on EU membership talks
Icelanders vote Saturday on whether to resume EU membership talks, which were paused 13 years ago. Recent polls show the country is almost evenly divided.
Icelanders head to the polls on Saturday to decide if their country should restart negotiations to join the European Union. This vote comes 13 years after a Eurosceptic government paused the last round of accession talks.
Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, whose Social Democrats party is pro-EU, has pledged to honour the public's choice. A 'yes' vote would likely lead to years of talks with Brussels, followed by a second referendum on formal membership. A 'no' vote would end the discussion, according to the Prime Minister.
Knife-edge vote
Recent surveys show Icelanders are almost evenly split. A Gallup poll this week found 51.6 percent against new talks, with 48.4 percent in favour. An earlier survey by Icelandic pollster Maskina showed a narrow majority of 51.3 percent backing new accession talks.
Adam Fishwick, a lecturer at the University of Iceland, told Al Jazeera the expected benefits include reduced inflation, a more stable currency, and fewer customs barriers. He also noted potential for regional development through access to EU funds. However, he said the debate remains 'quite polarised'. Opponents fear the nation of 395,000 would lose control over policy and have limited sway in a bloc of larger powers.
Economic and security drivers
The benefits are not as obvious as for other candidates. Iceland is wealthy and, as a member of Schengen and the European Economic Area, already has significant single-market access. Yet economic pains have grown. Consumer prices in 2025 exceeded those of any EU state and were 87 percent higher than the EU average.
Iceland's krona is prone to swings that opponents say hurt investment and raise borrowing costs. A government report this year concluded the costs of keeping its own currency likely outweigh the benefits, suggesting adopting the euro could lower interest rates.
Security concerns are also a factor. Associate professor Gabriella Gricius told Al Jazeera Iceland's lack of armed forces leaves it 'reliant on NATO and specifically the US'. With the US growing 'more unpredictable', she said it's 'not surprising that Iceland is seeking additional security guarantees through the EU'. Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir has said membership would be 'a valuable addition', citing disappointment with US pressure on Greenland and Denmark, and noting Russia as a threat in nearby waters.
Fishing industry fears
A major concern is the impact on fishing, an economic pillar that directly contributed about 8 percent of GDP in 2024. Joining the EU would subject Iceland to the Common Fisheries Policy. The industry fears new catch quotas, foreign competition, and less control.
Professor Valur Ingimundarson told Al Jazeera the 'fundamental objection' is that Iceland 'would not retain full control over its fisheries, the traditional backbone of the economy'. He said even a 'yes' vote would unlikely lead to membership without 'ironclad' fishing exemptions.
For the EU, Icelandic membership would expand its territory deeper into the North Atlantic. Gricius said it would give the EU four of the eight Arctic states, potentially influencing its strategic focus in the region.
